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Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence

Ayhan Kose, Hideaki Matsuoka, Ugo Panizza and Dana Vorisek

No 13601, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored as those in advanced economies, despite notable improvements over the past two decades. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However, EMDEs tend to be more successful in anchoring inflation expectations in the presence of an inflation targeting regime, high central bank transparency, strong trade integration, and a low level of public debt.

Keywords: developing economies; emerging markets; inflation; Inflation expectations; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 E40 E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2019-03
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Working Paper: Inflation expectations: Review and evidence (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence (2019) Downloads
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