Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks

Régis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

No 13765, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Despite decades of research, the consistent estimation of structural forward looking macroeconomic equations remains a formidable empirical challenge because of pervasive endogeneity issues. Prominent cases ---the estimation of Phillips curves, of Euler equations for consumption or output, or of monetary policy rules--- have typically relied on using pre-determined variables as instruments, with mixed success. In this work, we propose a new approach that consists in using sequences of independently identified structural shocks as instrumental variables. Our approach is robust to weak instruments and is valid regardless of the shocks' variance contribution. We estimate a Phillips curve using monetary shocks as instruments and find that conventional methods (i) substantially under-estimate the slope of the Phillips curve and (ii) over-estimate the role of forward-looking inflation expectations.

Keywords: Structural equations; Instrumental variables; Impulse responses; Robust inference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C32 E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks* (2020)
Working Paper: Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks (2019)
Working Paper: Identifying modern macro equations with old shocks (2019)
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