Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?
Chad Bown () and
Davin Chor ()
No 14091, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
We findthat Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 US congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only partially mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage, affirming the importance of health care as an election issue. A counterfactual calculation suggests that the trade war (respectively, health care) can account for five (eight) of Republicans' lost House seats.
Keywords: Agricultural Subsidies; Health Insurance Coverage; Retaliatory Tariffs; trade policy; Trade War; voting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ias and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at email@example.com
Working Paper: Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? (2020)
Working Paper: Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14091
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... rs/dp.php?dpno=14091
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().