Consumption insurance over the business cycle

Tobias Broer

No 14579, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: How do business cycle fluctuations affect the ability of households to smooth consumption against idiosyncratic shocks? To answer this question, we first document that, in U.S.\ micro-data, individual consumption reacts more to income changes in booms. Standard incomplete markets models, in contrast, where individuals borrow and save to smooth consumption, predict a lower sensitivity of consumption to individual income changes during times of high output. This motivates us to consider an alternative environment where financial frictions are endogenous and arise from lack of contract enforcement, whose business cycle properties have so far not been studied. We show analytically that this model is consistent with a wide variety of cyclical patterns of insurance. In a quantitative application with unemployment risk, we show that the response of individual consumption to job losses differs strongly between times of high and low output, and identify the conditions under which it is procyclical, as in the data.

Keywords: Consumption smoothing; Risk sharing; Limited enforcement; Business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 G22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP14579 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14579

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP14579

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().