Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike

Ivan Petrella, Federico Di Pace and Luciana Juvenal

No 14594, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Terms of trade are an inaccurate empirical proxy for how fluctuations in international prices affect the economy. To capture the relevance of terms of trade fluctuations for the domestic business cycle, the role of export and import prices needs to be analyzed separately. Using a sample of developing economies, we find that the economy's response to a positive export price shock does not mirror the response to a negative import price shock. Taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 30 percent of output fluctuations, but export price shocks are more important than import price shocks as drivers of output. Global economic activity shocks, which simultaneously affect export and import prices, are largely undetected in the terms-of-trade measure but significantly affect domestic business cycles. We link our results to existing small open economy models used to study the transmission of terms-of-trade shocks.

Keywords: Terms of trade; Commodity prices; Business cycles; World shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F41 F44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Terms-of-Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike (2025)
Working Paper: Terms-of-trade shocks are not all alike (2021)
Working Paper: Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike (2020)
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