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Optimal COVID-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies

Facundo Piguillem () and Liyan Shi

No 14613, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Many countries are taking measures stopping productive activities to slow down the spread of COVID-19. At times these measures have been criticized as being excessive and too costly. In this paper we make an attempt to understand the optimal response to an infectious disease. We find that the observed policies are very close to a simple welfare maximization problem of a planner who tries to stop the diffusion of the disease. These extreme measures seem optimal in spite of the high output cost that it may have in the short run, and for various curvatures of the welfare function. The desire for cost smoothing reduces the intensity of the optimal quarantine while extending it for longer, but it still amounts to reducing economic activity by at least 40%. We then study the possibility of either complementing or substituting the quarantine policy with random testing. We find that testing is a very close substitute of quarantine and can substantially reduce the need for indiscriminate quarantines.

Keywords: COVID-19; Optimal quarantine; Optimal testing; Welfare cost of quarantines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E1 E65 H12 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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