Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Charles Jones
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde

No 14711, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We use data on deaths in New York City, various U.S. states, and various countries around the world to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible futures for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening. Our current baseline mortality rate (IFR) is assumed to be 0.8% but we recognize there is substantial uncertainty about this number. Our model fits the death data equally well with alternative mortality rates of 0.3% or 1.0%, so this parameter is unidentified in our data. However, its value matters enormously for the extent to which various places can relax social distancing without spurring a resurgence of deaths.

Keywords: Sird model; Covid-19; Estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 I10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (115)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities (2022)
Working Paper: Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities (2020)
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