Rotation as Contagion Mitigation

Jakub Steiner, Andrea Galeotti and Jeffrey Ely

No 14953, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We study rotation schemes that govern individuals' activities within an organization during an epidemic. We optimize the frequency of rotation and degree of cross-mixing of the rotating subpopulations. Frequency affects risk over the length of diffusion within the infected subpopulation until the organization detects and/or reacts to the infection. If the reaction time is short, then such risk is undesirable since the growth of the prevalence is initially convex in time. Frequent rotation, which acts as insurance against exposure time risk, is then optimal. Infrequent rotation becomes optimal if the organization reacts slowly. Mixing of the rotating subpopulations is detrimental because it increases the share of interactions between sick and healthy individuals. However, the effect of mixing is small if the terminal prevalence is low in the absence of mixing.

Keywords: Rotation; Epidemic mitigation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Journal Article: Rotation as Contagion Mitigation (2021)
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