The Optimal Allocation of Covid-19 Vaccines

Ana Babus, Sanmay Das and SangMok Lee

No 15329, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Covid-19 vaccine prioritization is key if the initial supply of the vaccine is limited. A consensus is emerging to first prioritize populations facing a high risk of severe illness in high-exposure occupations. The challenge is assigning priorities next among high-risk populations in low-exposure occupations and those that are young and healthy but work in high-exposure occupations. We estimate occupation-based infection risks and use age-based infection fatality rates in a model to assign priorities over populations with different occupations and ages. Among others, we find that 50-year-old food-processing workers and 60-year-old financial advisors are equally prioritized. Our model suggests a vaccine distribution that emphasizes age-based mortality risk more than occupation-based exposure risk. Designating some occupations as essential does not affect the optimal vaccine allocation unless a stay-at-home order is also in effect. Even with vaccines allocated optimally, 7.14% of the employed workforce is still expected to be infected with the virus until the vaccine becomes widely available, provided the vaccine is 50% effective, and assuming a supply of 60mil doses.

Keywords: Optimal assignment; Occupational health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H4 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-09
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Journal Article: The optimal allocation of Covid-19 vaccines (2023)
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