When to Lock, Not Whom: Managing Epidemics Using Time-Based Restrictions

Eran Yashiv, Yinon Bar-On, Tatiana Baron and Ron Milo

No 15939, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We present normative and positive analyses of policy tools to manage epidemics, both current and any future ones. Against the background of serious misspecification of COVID19 dynamics in Economics research, at odds with the evidence, we present a constructive alternative with a sound model. This may guide researchers and place the analysis in Economics on solid footing. We introduce novel NPI tools for the management of epidemics. Rather than using prevalent policies based on population restrictions, these place time at the center of the analysis: time restrictions, relation to timescales of virus transmission, and optimal timing of interventions. Key findings are that the new tools significantly improve social welfare, substantially lessening the trade-offs involved; optimally-derived timings of interventions suppress the disease while maintaining reasonable economic activity; and outcomes are superior to the actual experience of New York State and Florida in the course of 2020.

Keywords: Public health policy; Npi; Roles of time; Normative analysis; Positive analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E23 E61 E65 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: When to Lock, Not Whom: Managing Epidemics Using Time-Based Restrictions (2023)
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