Aging and the Real Interest Rate in Japan: A Labor Market Channel

Ippei Fujiwara and Shigeru Fujita

No 16127, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and declining trends in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search/matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force accounts for 40 percent or more of the declines in the real interest rate observed between the 1980s and 2000s in Japan. We also examine the impacts of other long-term developments such as a slowdown of TFP growth and higher shares of female and non-regular workers.

Keywords: Aging; Real interest rate; Japan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16127 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel (2023)
Working Paper: Aging and the Real Interest Rate in Japan: A Labor Market Channel (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16127

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16127

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().