Peso Problems in the Estimation of the C-CAPM

Andreas Schrimpf, Juan Parra-Alvarez and Olaf Posch

No 16299, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper shows that the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) with low-probability disaster risk rationalizes pricing errors. We find that implausible estimates of risk aversion and time preference are not puzzling if market participants expect a future catastrophic change in fundamentals, which just happens not to occur in the sample (a ‘peso problem’). A bias in structural parameter estimates emerges as a result of pricing errors in quiet times. While the bias essentially removes the pricing error in the simple models when risk-free rates are constant, time-variation may also generate large and persistent estimated pricing errors in simulated data. We also show analytically how the problem of biased estimates can be avoided in empirical research by resolving the misspecification in moment conditions.

Keywords: Rare events; Asset pricing errors; C-capm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 G12 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-06
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Journal Article: Peso problems in the estimation of the C‐CAPM (2022)
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