International Yield Co-movements

Geert Bekaert and Andrey Ermolov

No 16365, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We decompose long-term nominal bond yields into real and inflation components in an international context using inflation-linked and nominal bonds. In contrast to extant results, real rate variation dominates the variation in inflation-linked and nominal yields. Cross-country nominal and inflation-linked yield correlations have declined since the Great Recession. Real rates are the main source of the correlation between nominal yields. Our results are robust to various alternative measurements of inflation expectations and the liquidity premium. They continue to hold when a no-arbitrage term structure model with real, nominal, and inflation factors is used to effect the yield decomposition.

Keywords: Treasuries; Sovereign bonds; Cross-country co-movement; Real yield; Expected inflation; Inflation risk premium; Liquidity premium (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E43 G12 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-07
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16365 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: International Yield Comovements (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16365

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16365

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().