The real channel for nominal bond-stock puzzles

Mikhail Chernov, Lars Lochstoer and Dongho Song

No 16381, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We present evidence that the mix of transitory and permanent shocks to consumption is changing over time. We identify three regimes: two highly persistent regimes where either permanent or transitory shocks are relatively more dominant, and a disaster regime that is largely transitory. We study implications of this finding for asset prices. The transition from the second to the first regime in the mid-1990s makes the correlation between equities and bonds switch sign from positive to negative as in the data. The real bond and equity yield curves are approximately flat. The nominal bond curve is upward sloping. These results are achieved without relying on the nominal channel too much. That is, as in the data, the variation of inflation in the model is under 40% as a fraction of variation in nominal yields.

Keywords: Permanent and transitory components of consumption; Bond-stock comovement; Bond yield curve; Equity yield curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E31 E43 E44 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-07
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Working Paper: The Real Channel for Nominal Bond-Stock Puzzles (2021)
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