Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century
Adrien Auclert,
Hannes Malmberg,
Frederic Martenet and
Matthew Rognlie
No 16470, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
Abstract:
We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 countries, we measure the compositional effect of aging: how a changing age distribution affects wealth-to-GDP, holding the age profiles of assets and labor income fixed. In a baseline overlapping generations model this statistic, in conjunction with cross-sectional information and two standard macro parameters, pins down general equilibrium outcomes. Since the compositional effect is positive, large, and heterogeneous across countries, our model predicts that population aging will increase wealth-to-GDP ratios, lower asset returns, and widen global imbalances through the twenty-first century. These conclusions extend to a richer model in which bequests, individual savings, and the tax-and-transfer system all respond to demographic change.
JEL-codes: E21 F21 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-08
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16470 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
Related works:
Working Paper: Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century (2021) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16470
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16470
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().