Monetary Policy during Unbalanced Global Recoveries

Luca Fornaro and Federica Romei

No 16971, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We study optimal monetary policy during times of exceptionally high global demand for tradable goods, relative to non-tradable services. The optimal monetary response entails a rise in inflation, which helps rebalance production toward the tradable sector. While the inflation costs are fully beared domestically, however, part of the gains in terms of higher supply of tradable goods spill over to the rest of the world. National central banks may thus fall into a coordination trap, and implement an excessively tight monetary policy during tradable goods-driven recoveries.

Date: 2022-01
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