Assessing Alternative Indicators for Covid-19 Policy Evaluation, with a Counterfactual for Sweden

Chiara Latour, Franco Peracchi and Giancarlo Spagnolo

No 16986, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. The much longer delay estimated by two previous studies focusing on the number of positives cases is mainly driven by the extremely low testing frequency that prevailed in Sweden in the first months of the epidemic. This result appears relevant for choosing the timing of future lockdowns and highlights the importance of looking at several indicators to derive robust conclusions. We also find that our novel indicator is effective in correcting errors in the COVID-19 deaths series and that the quantitative effects of the lockdown are stronger than previously estimated.

Keywords: Covid-19 indicators; Excess deaths; Covid-19 deaths; Containment policies; Lockdown; Synthetic control method; Sweden (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C4 F6 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-02
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Related works:
Journal Article: Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden (2022)
Working Paper: Assessing Alternative Indicators for Covid-19 Policy Evaluation, with a Counterfactual for Sweden (2021)
Working Paper: Assessing Alternative Indicators for Covid-19 Policy Evaluation, with a Counterfactual for Sweden (2021)
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