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GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix

Martin Almuzara, Dante Amengual, Gabriele Fiorentini () and Enrique Sentana ()

No 17196, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We exploit the information in the successive vintages of GDE and GDI from the current comprehensive revision to obtain an improved timely measure of US aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures and taking seriously their monthly release calendar. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, does not generate noticeable revisions in previous growth rates. The estimated parameters of our dynamic state-space model suggest that comprehensive revisions have not changed the long-run growth rate of US GDP.

Keywords: cointegration; Comprehensive revisions; Signal Extraction; US aggregate output; Vintages (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-04
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