War and Policy: Investor Expectations on the Net-Zero Transition

Ming Deng, Markus Leippold, Alexander Wagner and Qian Wang

No 17207, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This study develops novel text-based proxies of corporate exposure to the low-carbon transition and applies them to study investor responses to major events. US stocks with greater regulatory transition risk outperformed in response to the Russia-Ukraine war, though firms with renewable energy opportunities also benefited temporarily. The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) also favored both types of firms, suggesting that the pricing of climate risk does not generally follow a one-dimensional “brown vs. green†framework. In Europe, if anything, high-transition risk firms suffered. These results indicate an international divergence in the pace of energy transition.

Keywords: Inflation; ESG; Stock returns; Energy; Resilience; Event studies; Climate transition risk; Russia-ukraine war (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 G01 G14 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-07
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Working Paper: War and Policy: Investor Expectations on the Net-Zero Transition (2023)
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