The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games

Tadgh Hegarty and Karl Whelan ()

No 17273, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The support of home spectators is one of the contributing factors to the home advantage effect in sports matches. The Covid-19 pandemic led to European soccer matches being played without spectators. We show that betting markets adjusted swiftly to account for a reduced home advantage in both goal difference and the probability of a win. These adjustments proved accurate over a large sample of soccer matches subsequently played without spectators even though the earliest games appeared to suggest a much bigger change in home advantage

Keywords: Covid-19; Market efficiency; Home advantage; Soccer (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-05
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