Low Safe Rates: A case for Dynamic Inefficiency?

Gaetano Bloise and Pietro Reichlin

No 17651, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We reexamine the tests for dynamic inefficiency in productive overlapping-generations economies with stochastic growth. The size of real, long-term, safe interest rates relative to average GDP growth is an inconclusive test for dynamic inefficiency. A more accurate test should take into account the correlation between growth and the marginal utility of wealth. This typically restricts the room for inefficiency and welfare-improving policies. We also distinguish capital overaccumulation from an inefficient distribution of consumption risk. The refined test for capital overaccumulation is rather stringent: capital is not overaccumulated if the net dividend remains positive with some probability, as opposed to always, as in the original Abel et al. (1989)'s formulation

Keywords: Interest; rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D60 E21 E62 G1 H2 H21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-11
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