Organized Crime, Violence and Support for the State

Gian Maria Campedelli, Gianmarco Daniele, Andrea Martinangeli and Paolo Pinotti

No 18146, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Citizens’ support is crucial to effectively combat organized crime. Contrary to prior studies that have identified a negative correlation between victimization and trust in the state, we find that exposinga representative sample of 6,000 individuals in Italy to journalistic images of organized crime-related violence increases trust towards institutions and state performance. We attribute this finding to a "rally around the flag" effect, rather than to the decrease in homicide rates occurring over the last decades – in fact, individuals wrongly believe that homicides have increased during such period. Updating beliefs on the real trend in violence does not appear to modify this relationship. Overall, these findings highlight how exposure to violence, especially when linked to organized groups, might strengthen state support.

JEL-codes: D70 D72 H3 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-05
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