Do Gamblers Understand Complex Bets? Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer

Tadgh Hegarty and Karl Whelan ()

No 18153, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The Asian Handicap is a way to bet on soccer matches where payouts depend on an adjustment to the score that favors the weaker team. These bets are more complex than traditional betting on soccer because they require assessing the likely goal difference in the match rather than just the probabilities of a home win, away win or draw and because they can feature the possibility of all or half the bet being refunded. We show that bettors systematically lose more money on the type of Asian Handicap bets where refunds are not possible than they do when it is possible to obtain a half refund and that bets with the possibility of a full refund have the lowest loss rates. Bookmakers do not appear to adjust odds to equate the expected return on these bets. We show that the pattern of differences in loss rates across bets is predictable based on the odds quoted.

JEL-codes: G41 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP18153 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: Do Gamblers Understand Complex Bets? Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18153

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP18153

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().