The Rise and Fall of Paper Money in Yuan China, 1260-1368

Hanhui Guan, Nuno Palma and Meng Wu

No 18717, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Following the Mongol invasion of China, the Yuan (1260–1368) dynasty was the first political regime to introduce a precious metal standard and deploy paper money as the sole legal tender. Drawing on a new dataset on money issues, prices, warfare, imperial grants, taxation, natural disasters, and population, we find that a silver standard initially consolidated the Chinese currency market. However, persistent fiscal pressures eventually compelled rulers to ease the monetary standard, and a fiat standard was adopted. We show that inflation was high in the early and late periods of the dynasty but remained moderate for nearly half a century. We find that military pressure, particularly civil war, generated fiscal demands that led to the over-issuance of money. By contrast, natural disasters and imperial grants did not trigger the over-issue of money. Warfare was much more likely to increase paper money issues under the fiat standard than during the silver standard period.

JEL-codes: E42 N15 N45 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-12
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Related works:
Journal Article: The rise and fall of paper money in Yuan China, 1260–1368 (2024)
Working Paper: The Rise and Fall of Paper Money in Yuan China, 1260-1368 (2024)
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