Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects using Subjective Expectations

Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Leth-Petersen, Søren and Christopher Tonetti

No 18995, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We develop a method to identify the individual latent propensity to select into treat- ment and marginal treatment effects. Identification is achieved with survey data on individuals’ subjective expectations of their treatment propensity and of their treatment-contingent outcomes. We use the method to study how child birth affects female labor supply in Denmark. We find limited latent heterogeneity and large short-term effects that vanish by 18 months after birth. We support the validity of the identifying assump- tions in this context by using administrative data to show that the average treatment effect on the treated computed using our method and traditional event-study methods are nearly equal. Finally, we study the effects of counterfactual changes to child care cost and quality on female labor supply.

Keywords: Marginal; treatment; effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C52 C83 J13 J22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-04
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Working Paper: Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects using Subjective Expectations (2024)
Working Paper: Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects using Subjective Expectations (2024)
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