Elephants in Equity Markets

Helene Rey, Adrien Rousset Planat, Vania Stavrakeva and Jenny Tang

No 19284, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We introduce a novel empirical market-clearing–based decomposition of equity price growth. Using sample holdings covering only an average of 6% of market capitalization, we account for, on average, 88% of time variation in over 22,000 individual stock prices and 95% of fluctuations in 33 aggregate stock indices. Changes in portfolio weights contribute most to the variance of individual stock prices, while “safe haven†markets feature strong cross-stock substitution patterns that leave aggregate portfolio weight changes uncorrelated with aggregate indices. Equity markets are global and exchange rates play a key equilibrating role. We find that the behavior of active funds’ portfolio managers has a causal effect on stock prices by transmitting firm-specific news. Similarly, final funds’ investors play a key role in transmitting macroeconomic and risk aversion news to stock prices.

Date: 2024-07
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Working Paper: Elephants in Equity Markets (2024)
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