The Effect of Foreign Aid on Migration

Andreas Fuchs, Gröger, Andre, Tobias Heidland and Lukas Wellner
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: André Gröger

No 19332, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Policymakers advocate for foreign aid to reduce the "root causes" of migration at origin despite a lack of scientific evidence on the effectiveness of such policies. We examine the global effects of aid on migration by combining georeferenced data on World Bank project announcements and disbursements from 2008-2019 with survey data on migration preferences of one million individuals worldwide and bilateral migration flows. Employing event studies and instrumental variable regressions, we find that in the short term, aid improves expectations of the future and trust in institutions, reducing individual migration preferences and asylum seeker flows. In the longer term, aid increases incomes, leading to more regular migration, consistent with the "mobility transition" theory.

Keywords: Foreign aid; Aid effectiveness; World bank; International migration; Asylum migration; Aspirations; Gallup world poll (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 F35 F53 H77 O15 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-08
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