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Are Interventions Self-Exciting?

Andreas Fischer () and Mathias Zurlinden

No 1964, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: It is often argued that interventions provide news on changes in risk premia or in future monetary policy. If so, the timing of interventions offers important information for central bank watchers. One method to study the reaction function of a central bank is to consider whether the duration intervals of past interventions matter for future interventions. The time deformation of interventions is modelled as an autoregressive process following the class of ACD models first proposed by Engle and Russell (1994). The analysis considers the persistence of interventions by the Federal Reserve, the Bundesbank and the Swiss National Bank.

Keywords: Duration; exchange rate intervention (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998-09
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