Systemic Risk Measures: From the Panic of 1907 to the Banking Stress of 2023

Viral Acharya, Markus Brunnermeier and Diane Pierret

No 19727, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We assess the efficacy of market-based systemic risk measures that rely on U.S. financial firms’ stock return co-movements with market- or sector-wide returns under stress from 1895 to 2023. Stress episodes are identified using corporate bond spread widening and narrative dating, spanning from the Panic of 1907 to the Banking Stress of 2023. Measures observed prior to the onset of stress episodes predict market outcomes (realized volatility and returns), balance sheet outcomes (lending, profitability, and run risk), and bank failures. Specifically, the measures are: (i) particularly effective in capturing the cross-sectional ranking of institutions conditional on a stress episode, rather than aggregate outcomes; (ii) more informative when stress episodes are severe; and (iii) relevant for both banks and non-bank financial institutions, although measures incorporating market leverage are especially informative for banks. A comparative analysis shows that market-based indicators offer information that is distinct from, and complementary to, traditional balance sheet metrics used in supervisory and macroprudential risk assessment.

Keywords: Bank failures; Covar; Financial sector fragility; Leverage; MES; Srisk; Stress episodes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 E32 G01 G12 G17 G20 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-11
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