Currency Wars and Trade

Kris Mitchener and Kirsten Wandschneider

No 19839, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, high-frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs.

JEL-codes: F14 F33 F42 N10 N70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-01
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