Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty

Luca Gambetti, Dimitris Korobilis, John Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti

No 19946, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We formalize two novel concepts of uncertainty in a model of imperfect and dispersed information: agreed and disagreed uncertainty. We show that consumer disagreement significantly shapes the effect of uncertainty on economic activity. Episodes of elevated uncertainty accompanied by high consumer disagreement (disagreed uncertainty) do not exert negative effects on economic activity. In contrast, episodes of high uncertainty with low consumer disagreement (agreed uncertainty) lead to substantial economic contractions. These results challenge the conventional view that uncertainty invariably triggers recessions. We establish these findings using both time-series and micro-survey panel methods.

Keywords: Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E32 E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-02
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Related works:
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2025)
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2025)
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2023)
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2023)
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2023)
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2023)
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2023)
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2023)
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2023)
Working Paper: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty (2023)
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