Government Support in Times of Crisis: Transfers and the Road to Socialism

Felipe Gonzalez and Mounu Prem

No 20059, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Despite economic crises, incumbents often retain electoral support. We study Chile’s 1970-1973 infant nutrition program under Salvador Allende’s left-wing government and attribute this electoral resilience to the political returns of transfers during crises. The program provided milk to preschoolers, reducing infant mortality and bolstering electoral support despite hyperinflation and economic hardship. Using administrative data, surveys, and variation in crisis severity, we show transfers had greater political returns in areas most affected by the crisis. Survey evidence suggests voters swayed by transfers did not blame the government for the crisis. Our findings highlight how transfers and crisis perceptions sustain electoral popularity.

JEL-codes: H51 N35 N46 P35 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-03
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