Beyond Hot Spots: Enhancing Police Effectiveness by Incorporating a Spatial Network Approach

Corrado Giulietti, Brendon McConnell and Yves Zenou

No 20065, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: How can crime be disrupted most effectively without increasing resources? To answer this question, we develop a spatial network model to analyse crime diffusion, using London as a case study. Moving beyond traditional hot spot policing, we identify key player neighbourhoods- highly connected areas in the network. Our analysis reveals that while hot spots mainly attract crime locally, key player neighbourhoods predominantly propagate it. Simulations show that targeting the top 10% of key players reduces crime by 10.7% (5.8 percentage points) more than hot spot strategies. This approach offers a cost-effective solution, with potential annual savings exceeding 130 million pounds.

JEL-codes: C23 D85 H50 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-03
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