The Other First Wave: Elite Conflict and Democratization in Agrarian Autocracies

Allison Hartnett and Mohamed Saleh

No 20260, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Social conflict theory holds that first wave industrializing autocracies democratized when an incumbent rural elite was challenged by an urban bourgeoisie. We argue that a capitalist rural middle class (RMC) in agrarian autocracies could also push for partial democratization to level the economic field with the incumbent elite, when power shifts in the RMC's favor. We test this argument in precolonial Egypt from 1866 to 1882, using the universe of speeches of members of parliament (MPs). We find that after Egypt's 1876 default that arguably weakened the landed elite, MP pro-democratic reform speeches increased substantially. This increase was greater among RMC MPs from cotton-producing constituencies, due to the higher elite conflict over labor in these areas. After 1876, these MPs also pushed for capitalist reforms to mitigate landed elite expropriation. Our study challenges the notion that agrarian economies were predisposed to autocracy in the first wave of democratization.

Keywords: Democracy; capitalist agriculture; Social conflict; Elites; Legislatures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 N45 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-05
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