Growth, Interrupted: How Crises Delay Global Convergence

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

No 20733, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: During a major crisis, the transitional dynamics of conditional convergence are unlikely to apply. In this paper, we introduce a Markov chain approach which integrates the study of crises and convergence. We allow upwards and downwards mobility to change when a country enters a crisis regime. We find that conflict and debt crises help to explain the persistence of low relative income, and that the convergence process has changed over time. Faster global convergence in the early 2000s can be attributed partly to fewer and shorter crises, so the multiple shocks since the late 2010s are likely to have slowed income convergence.

Keywords: Convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP20733 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20733

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP20733

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CEPR ().