Breaking negative narratives: Long-term Social Progress and Trust in Institutions

Federica Braccioli, Gianmarco Daniele and Andrea Martinangeli

No 20902, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Democratic institutions worldwide are facing rising distrust. We posit that establishing data-driven narratives on long-term social progress and holding institutions accountable for it can restore confidence in institutions. We focus on public safety, a domain in which progress can be quantified by declining violence across industrialized countries. We implement a large-scale online experiment in Italy, a country particularly prone to negative narratives, exposing 7,000 adults to data-driven narratives on declining homicide rates, justice efficiency, and corruption reduction in the last twenty years. The information significantly increases social and institutional trust, including incentivised donations to a law enforcement–related organization (effects of 6–9% of a standard deviation). These findings persist fifty days later in a follow-up survey. Effects are strongest when social progress is explicitly linked to state action and for individuals holding more negative views. Both positive news and accountability dynamics drive the results. These findings offer a pathway to counter persistent disillusionment in democratic governance, by showing how aligning public perceptions with societal progress can restore institutional trust.

Date: 2025-12
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