Speculation in the UK, 1785-2019

William Quinn, John Turner and Clive Walker

No 20904, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Speculation has long been thought to have significant economic effects, but it is difficult to measure, making it challenging to examine these effects empirically. In this paper we measure speculation in the UK since 1785 by using business and financial reporting in The Times newspaper. Our monthly speculation index reveals four distinct epochs of speculation in the UK. Epochs of high speculation coincide with higher stock market returns and higher economic growth, while low speculation periods coincide with high levels of government debt and financial repression. We find that low interest rates foment the development of higher speculation, and that eras of higher speculation are often followed by greater banking instability.

Keywords: stock; market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E50 G10 N13 N14 N23 N24 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
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