How Monetary Policy Is Made: Lessons from Historical FOMC Discussions

Cooper Howes, Marc Dordal i Carreras, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

No 20968, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We construct a new dataset of FOMC meeting transcripts from 1966 to 1990 to analyze the sources of heterogeneity in individual monetary policy preferences and study how this heterogeneity shapes policy decisions. Using these detailed discussions, we manually quantify and characterize each FOMC participants’ preferred policies along with their reasoning and justification. We show that participants' beliefs about the effects of monetary policy—specifically, their perceived slope of the Phillips Curve—play a central role. Participants who believe monetary policy has stronger effects on real activity are more likely to cite output as a justification for easing, while those perceiving stronger price effects emphasize inflation as a reason for tightening. We then show that the Chair plays a unique and powerful role in reconciling these views, not just in setting policy rates, but also in minimizing dissent. The latter occurs because dissenters find their ability to influence policy in subsequent meetings is significantly curtailed.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Narratives; Committees (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
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Working Paper: How Monetary Policy Is Made: Lessons from Historical FOMC Discussions (2026)
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