War Destruction, Commercial Relocation and Urban Recovery

Gröger, Andre and Hannes Mueller

No 21059, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We study how cities reorganize after large-scale wartime destruction, using Aleppo after the Syrian civil war as a case study. We construct a 30m × 30m panel for the period 2013 to 2025 combining repeated manual and AI damage assessments, OpenStreetMap points-of-interest for commerce and amenities, and independent recovery proxies from nighttime lights and builtup area. Destruction sharply reduces commerce and amenities, with strong neighbourhood spillovers. Commerce concentrates in less damaged areas and continues to relocate away from destroyed cells even within neighbourhoods. Recovery is selective: nighttime lights largely catch up in the 2020s, while community institutions only partially return to destroyed areas. Overall, the results point to sector-specific adjustment dynamics and persistent spatial reallocation that can leave damaged neighbourhoods on a lower amenity trajectory long after fighting ends.

Keywords: Recovery (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C45 D74 R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
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