Diversionary Escalation: Theory and Evidence from Eastern Ukraine

Natalie Ayers, Christopher Blair, Joseph Ruggiero, Austin L. Wright and Konstantin Sonin

No 21092, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: When leaders face threats to their authority, escalating foreign conflict can help divert public attention away from domestic grievances. We develop a formal microfoundation for diversionary escalation rooted in a theory of regime change. Although the idea of diversionary escalation is classic, systematic quantitative evidence has been challenging to obtain. Using a new data set of 1.8 million conflict incidents, obtained from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine in 2015--2022, we find evidence that the Russian government strategically employed proxy-initiated separatist violence in Eastern Ukraine to divert attention from domestic unrest and opposition-led protest. We also find a positive link between opposition protest and inflammatory anti-Ukrainian coverage in the Russian media, complementary to battlefield escalation.

JEL-codes: D74 D82 O1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
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