Models of Technology Diffusion

Paul Geroski

No 2146, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The literature on new technology diffusion is vast, and it spills over many conventional disciplinary boundaries. This paper surveys this literature by focussing on alternative explanations of the dominant stylized fact in this are: namely, that the usage of new technologies over time typically follows an S-curve. The most commonly found model which is used to account for this model is the so-called epidemic model, which builds on the premise that what limits the speed of usage is the lack of information available about the new technology, how to use it and what it does. The leading alternate model is often called the probit model, which follows from the premise that different firms, with different goals and abilities, are likely to want to adopt the new technology at different times. In this model, diffusion occurs as firms of different types gradually adopt it. There are actually many ways to generate an S-curve, and the third class of models which we examine are models of density dependence popularized by population ecologists. In these models, the twin forces of legitimation and competition help to establish new technologies and then ultimately limit their take-up. Finally, we looks at models in which the initial choice between different variants of the new technology affect the subsequent diffusion speed of the chosen technology. Such models often rely on information cascades, which drive herd like adoption behaviour when a particular variant is finally selected.

Keywords: Density Dependence; Epidemics; Information Cascades; Probit Models; Technology Diffusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=2146 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: Models of technology diffusion (2000)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2146

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... ers/dp.php?dpno=2146

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().