Optimal Inflation Rate: A Meta-Analysis

Matej Opatrny, Martin Opatrny, Tomas Havranek, Zuzana Irsova and Mojmir Hampl

No 21629, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We revisit the optimal long-run inflation rate using 777 estimates from 116 primary studies published between 1989 and 2026, the largest sample assembled to date. To our knowledge, this is among the first meta-analyses in economics whose primary-data extraction is performed end-to-end through a documented and auditable large-language-model pipeline, calibrated against a hand-coded training set and released for replication. Across publication-selection and selection-on-significance diagnostics that are applicable in this calibration-dominated corpus, the literature points to an optimum of roughly 0.6 percentage points per year, well below the two-percent targets commonly used by advanced-economy central banks. Bayesian model averaging over the full structural-moderator schema shows that cross-study variation is driven by genuine modelling choices, the choice of monetary benchmark (Friedman rule vs. laissez-faire), the transactions-frictions technology, the assumed shock structure, and the class of nominal-rigidity contract, rather than by selective reporting.

Keywords: Meta-analysis; Bayesian model averaging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06
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