The Forward Premium Puzzle: Different Tales from Developed and Emerging Economies

Ravi Bansal and Magnus Dahlquist

No 2169, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: In this paper we document new results regarding the forward premium puzzle. The often found negative correlation between the expected currency depreciation and interest rate differential is, contrary to popular belief, not a pervasive phenomenon. It is confined to developed economies, and here only to states where the U.S. interest rate exceeds foreign interest rates. Furthermore, we find that differences across economies are systematically related to per capita GNP, average inflation rates, and inflation volatility. Our empirical work suggests that it is hard to justify the cross-sectional differences in the risk premia as compensation for systematic risk. Instead, country-specific attributes seem to be important in characterizing the cross-sectional dispersion in the risk premia.

Keywords: Forward Premium; Forward Rates; Systematic Risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999-06
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Journal Article: The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies (2000)
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