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Downton Revisited: Income Shocks and Aristocratic Marriage Markets, 1840–1913

Mark Taylor

No 21884, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We develop a transferable-utility model in which the collapse of arable estate income reshaped the aristocratic marriage market. The model predicts two cash-for-prestige substitution channels: a durable senior shift toward American brides, especially liquid new-money fortunes, and a transitory junior shift toward British commercial commoners, whose wealth scaled only weakly with rank. Analyzing 6,018 aristocratic marriages over 1840–1913, we combine trend-adjusted time-series evidence with cross-sectional exposure gradients in estate value and family size. American marriages rise as real wheat prices fall, especially among senior, larger-estate, and larger-family peers; new-money brides rise from 20% to 60% of classified American matches.

JEL-codes: C78 D13 J12 N33 Q11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-08
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