Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity: A Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen

Ronald MacDonald and Ian Marsh ()

No 2210, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This paper presents a simultaneous model of exchange rates between the three major countries. In addition to incorporating long-run equilibria and short-run dynamics, the model is designed to capture complex interactions between currencies not normally considered in exchange rate models. These interactions are shown to be important via generalised impulse response analysis, and the model as a whole to be an economically and statistically superior forecasting tool over relatively short horizons.

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Forecasting; Impulse Response; PPP Exchange Rate Rules; Spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen (2004)
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