Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization

Jonathan Heathcote and Fabrizio Perri

No 3268, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Over the period 1972-86, the correlations of GDP, employment and investment between the United States and an aggregate of Europe, Canada and Japan were respectively 0.76, 0.66 and 0.63. For the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower: 0.26, 0.03, and -0.07 (real regionalization). At the same time, US international asset trade has significantly increased. For example, between 1972-99, United States gross FDI and equity assets in the same group of countries rose from 4 to 23% of the US capital stock (financial globalization). We document that the correlation of real shocks between the US and the rest of the world has declined. We then present a model in which international financial market integration occurs endogenously in response to less correlated shocks. Financial integration further reduces international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and endogenous financial market development are needed to account for all the changes in the international business cycle.

Keywords: International business cycles; International diversification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F36 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-ifn
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Financial globalization and real regionalization (2004)
Working Paper: Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization (2003)
Working Paper: Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization (2002)
Working Paper: Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization (2001)
Working Paper: Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization (2001)
Working Paper: Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization (2001)
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