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Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

Harald Uhlig (huhlig@uchicago.edu) and Mönch, Emanuel
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Emanuel Moench

No 4377, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we conclude that the euro area has experienced three business cycles since 1970. We propose a simple amplitude/phase-length criterion for the Bry-Boschan procedure ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and European data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of NBER and CEPR.

Keywords: Business cycle; European business cycle; Euro area; Bry-boschan; Nber methodology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B41 C22 C82 E32 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area (2005) Downloads
Working Paper: Towards a monthly business cycle chronology for the euro area (2005) Downloads
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