Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets
Geert Bekaert (),
Campbell Harvey () and
No 5946, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that our liquidity measures significantly predict future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do not. Consistent with liquidity being a priced factor, unexpected liquidity shocks are positively correlated with contemporaneous return shocks and negatively correlated with shocks to the dividend yield. We consider a simple asset pricing model with liquidity and the market portfolio as risk factors and transaction costs that are proportional to liquidity. The model differentiates between integrated and segmented countries and time periods. Our results suggest that local market liquidity is an important driver of expected returns in emerging markets, and that the liberalization process has not fully eliminated its impact.
Keywords: emerging markets; liquidity pricing; return predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F3 G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at email@example.com
Journal Article: Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets (2007)
Working Paper: Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons From Emerging Markets (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5946
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... ers/dp.php?dpno=5946
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
Series data maintained by (). This e-mail address is bad, please contact .