Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

Frank Smets and Raf Wouters

No 6112, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macro-economic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross-correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the ?Great Moderation??

Keywords: Business cycle; Dsge models; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E4 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-ets and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4002)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach (2007)
Working Paper: Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach (2007)
Working Paper: Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach (2007)
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