East Germany, West Germany, and their Mezzogiorno Problem: An Empirical Investigation

Andrew Hughes Hallett and Yue Ma

No 623, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Economic and monetary reunification in Germany has proved to be more expensive than previously thought - and not just for the Germans. If a `Mezzogiorno' problem of continuing fiscal transfers to the East and possible migration flows westwards are to be avoided, there must be convergence in productivity levels. This paper analyses possible convergence paths and the policy regimes which accelerate convergence. The intention is to illustrate the (albeit less extreme) problems facing a European monetary union of asymmetric and incompletely converged economies. Working from first principles, or with the aid of an econometric model, shows that convergence sufficient to avoid a `Mezzogiorno' problem is likely to be slow: perhaps 30-40 years in the German case despite very fast growth in the East. Second, it is not clear that the process is incentive compatible: a substantial part of the servicing and subsidizing costs must be paid by other (non-German) economies in the union without any obvious compensating benefits. Third, to reduce the need for continuing transfers actually requires a policy which promotes price and wage flexibility in the depressed region. This appears to run counter to current market integration in Europe. Such `unpleasant arithmetic' is an important contribution to the monetary union debate, because without it the smooth running of a union of incompletely converged economies will certainly be compromised.

Keywords: Economic Convergence; Fiscal Transfers; Monetary Union; Price Flexibility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E62 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1992-02
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=623 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:623

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... pers/dp.php?dpno=623

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().